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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-05T21:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17677/-1
CME Note: The observed CME starts to faintly emerge from the SE quadrant of SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2021-09-05T21:36Z, after which a halo feature becomes visible towards the south starting around 2021-09-05T23:36Z. May be associated with the combined eruptions from AR2865 at 2021-09-05T17:54Z (associated with a B7.9 flare) and from AR2864 at 2021-09-05T18:48Z (associated with a B7.0 flare). (CME activity ID: 2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001). CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A slight compression in magnetic field is detected starting at 2021-09-10T01:32Z and is subsequently followed by ICME features (notable increases in B-field values and large-scale B-field rotations).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-10T01:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-09T01:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17676/1
Model Inputs:
2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=0.0, Lat.=7.0, Speed=537.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2021-09-06T04:21Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-09-09T01:35Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =18.1 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-08T04:17Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-09T05:45Z
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-09T00:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210906_042100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 77.73 hour(s)
Difference: 23.95 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2021-09-06T19:48Z

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